【高分教材】最新GMAT阅读资料 英国退欧很有可能成为现实

The British debate about Brexit, at the moment, reminds me of the discussions I heard in the US, late last year, about Donald Trump. Back then the opinion polls said that Mr Trump was well ahead in the race. But the conventional wisdom in Washington was that he would never win the Republican presidential nomination. Everybody told me that, once voters focused on the race, Mr Trump’s lead would crumble.

英国当下围绕“英国退欧”(Brexit)的争论，让我想起了去年晚些时候在美国听到的关于唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的讨论。那时的民意调查显示，特朗普的支持率遥遥领先。但华盛顿方面普遍认为，他绝不会赢得共和党总统候选人提名。所有人都对我说，一旦选民开始专注此次大选，特朗普的领先优势将化为乌有。

In Britain today, there is a similar unwillingness among mainstream political analysts to believe the warning signs from the opinion polls. Several recent polls have shown small majorities in favour of the UK leaving Europe when the country holds its referendum on June 23. But most political pundits I speak to still think it is pretty unlikely that Britain will really vote to leave. When it comes to both Mr Trump and Brexit, the political establishments in Washington and London find it hard to believe the public will ultimately make a choice that the establishment regards as self-evidently stupid.

如今在英国，主流政治分析人士同样不愿相信民调发出的警示信号。近期的几次民调显示，6月23日举行公投时，将有占微弱多数的民众投票赞成英国退欧。但我交谈过的多数政治学者仍认为，英国真的投票退欧的情况不太可能出现。对于特朗普与英国退欧，华盛顿和伦敦的政治建制派发现很难相信，公众最终将做出建制派认为明显愚蠢的选择。

However in Britain, as in the US, politics has taken a populist and unpredictable turn. The financial crisis and its aftermath have undermined faith in the judgment of elites. High levels of immigration and fear of terrorism have increased the temptation to try and pull up the drawbridge and retreat behind national frontiers.

然而，同美国一样，英国的政治也已经出现了一种难以预测的民粹主义转向。金融危机及其后果破坏了人们对于精英所做判断的信任。移民大量涌入、对恐怖主义的担忧增加了拉起吊桥、退缩至国家边界之内的诱惑。

Britain’s Leave campaign will put immigration and border controls at the centre of its campaign — and that could be a winning tactic. The polls suggest the public is overwhelmingly sympathetic to the idea that Britain needs to restrict immigration. Prime Minister David Cameron’s attempted renegotiation of the terms of Britain’s membership of the EU was unable to deliver much on this score. The principle of free movement of labour within the EU remains untouched — and the Leave campaign will make sure every voter knows that.

英国的退欧运动将把移民问题与边界管控问题置于核心——这有可能成为一项成功的策略。民调显示，绝大多数民众都对英国需要限制移民的想法表示赞同。英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)针对英国的欧盟成员国身份所尝试的重新谈判，在这一点上无法满足民众的要求。欧盟内部劳动力自由流动的原则仍未被触动，而退欧运动将确保每位投票者都知道这一点。

Unfortunately, the coalition that was meant to drive the Remain campaign is failing to come together. Pro-Europeans always assumed they would be able to rely on the support of the opposition Labour party, the Liberal Democrats, the mainstream of the Conservative party and most of British business. But the Labour party is now led by Jeremy Corbyn, a closet Brexiteer who will not lift a finger to rally his party behind the pro-EU cause. The Liberal Democrats were virtually wiped out at last year’s general election. And civil war has broken out among the Tories, with several leading figures joining the Leave campaign.

遗憾的是，本应推动留欧运动的联盟未能组建起来。支持留欧的人士总以为，他们能依靠自由民主党、保守党主流人士、反对党工党以及多数英国企业的支持。但工党目前由杰里米•科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)领导，他是一名不公开的退欧支持者，不会在团结本党支持留欧方面做出任何努力。在去年的大选中，自由民主党实际上已经出局。保守党内部也已爆发内斗，几名领袖人物都加入了退欧运动。

Meanwhile big business is being much less vocal than the Remain camp had hoped. A pro-EU letter was signed by just over one-third of the heads of the FTSE 100 — most hung back, either out of conviction or for fear of antagonising shareholders or customers. The City of London is largely in favour of staying inside the EU. But, in the current climate, the support of Goldman Sachs is not necessarily a plus.

与此同时，比起留欧阵营的期待，大企业发出的声音要少得多。只有略多于三分之一的富时100指数(FTSE 100)公司高管在一封呼吁留欧的公开信上签了名——多数高管都在犹豫，或是出于信念，或是因为害怕激怒股东或客户。伦敦金融城(City of London)基本上都支持留在欧盟。但在目前的状况下，即便高盛(Goldman Sachs)的支持也不一定会带来加分。

The Leave campaign also has the advantage of simple slogans that are easy to understand: control our borders, make our own laws, get our money back from Brussels. The Remain campaign’s responses to these demands, by contrast, are complicated. They point out that, if Britain wants to retain full access to the EU single market, it will almost certainly have to accept free movement of people as the price of entry, along with single-market regulations. They explain that, while Britain’s contribution to the EU budget sounds like a big number, it is actually a very small part of overall government spending.

退欧运动还有口号简单易理解的优势：控制我们的边境，制定我们自己的法律，把我们的钱从布鲁塞尔拿回来。相比之下，留欧运动人士对这些诉求的回应则较为复杂。他们指出，如果英国想要保留进入欧盟单一市场的全部权限，作为代价，英国几乎必须接受人员的自由流动，以及单一市场的法规。他们解释说，尽管英国对欧盟预算的贡献听起来数额巨大，这笔钱实际上只是政府总支出的很小一部分。

These are intellectually solid arguments. But they are also unhelpfully convoluted. And in politics, as the saying goes: “If you are explaining, you are losing.” Ominously, early focus groups suggest that, when undecided voters are exposed to the arguments of both sides of the debate, they are more likely to move towards a vote to leave. The polls also show that anti-EU voters are more likely to vote than the pro-EU camp. Meanwhile, Europe is looking like an increasingly tough sell, what with the euro crisis and the refugee one.

从理智上说这些都是有力的论断。但这些论断也曲折难懂，于事无补。在政治上，有句话是这么说的：“如果你在解释，你就快输了。”一个不祥的预兆是，早期的焦点小组研究表明，尚未做出决定的选民在了解辩论双方主张后更有可能偏向于投票支持退欧。民意调查也表明，反欧盟选民比亲欧盟阵营更有可能参与投票。同时，欧元危机和难民危机让欧洲的吸引力越来越低。

Faced with these problems, the Remain campaign is left relying to an unnerving extent on the authority of the prime minister. Two general election victories suggest Mr Cameron is a formidable campaigner. But he cannot do it alone. With business and the other political parties so far disappointing, he may have to look abroad for support.

面对这些难题，留欧运动只能在高得令人不安的程度上依赖于首相的权威。两次大选获胜表明卡梅伦是一个极为有力的活动家。但他独木难支。迄今商界和其他政党的表现都令人失望，卡梅伦或许不得不寻求海外的支持。

The news that President Barack Obama will visit the UK next month and is likely to endorse the campaign to keep Britain inside the EU has provoked fury from the Vote Leave campaign. Their outrage is telling. The US president is still a popular figure in much of the UK.

美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)下月将访问英国并有可能公开支持英国留欧运动的新闻，引发了退欧运动人士的愤怒。这些人的愤怒说明了一些问题——美国总统在英国很多地方依然是一个受欢迎的人物。

What is more, the Leave campaign has always argued there is a big world beyond Europe that is just waiting to embrace Britain once it leaves the EU. Nobody is better placed than the US president to gently puncture that idea. In the weeks following his visit, Downing Street should encourage other foreign leaders — from Beijing to Vatican City — to make their hostility to Brexit known.

此外，退欧运动总是主张，在欧洲之外，还有一个广阔的世界等着在英国退出欧盟的那一刻拥抱英国。要轻轻地挫伤这个想法，没有比美国总统更好的人选了。在美国总统访英之后的几个星期，唐宁街应该鼓励从北京到梵蒂冈等地的其他外国领导人让英国人了解到他们对英国退欧的反对。

Many foreign leaders will hesitate to intervene in an internal British debate. Some may have been lulled into believing Brexit is highly unlikely, anyway. Like the British political elite, they need to be disabused of that comforting notion — and fast.

许多外国领导人将对干预英国国内讨论感到迟疑。而且有些人可能已经产生了英国退欧极不可能发生的错觉。就像英国政治精英一样，他们应该打消这种提供了虚假安慰的观念——而且动作要快。

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